FPL GW1 captaincy archive: the forecast and what happened
The original 15 August captaincy shortlist, preserved alongside official GW1 scores and minutes. What the forecast got wrong, and why eight players cannot establish model accuracy.
Find published analysis across captaincy, transfers, team news, fixtures and FPL strategy.
The original 15 August captaincy shortlist, preserved alongside official GW1 scores and minutes. What the forecast got wrong, and why eight players cannot establish model accuracy.
Haaland owns a clear model lead for Sunderland at home, with Gibbs-White and Bruno the best alternatives for managers seeking a calculated swing.
The final City briefing leaves Haaland's role intact, while a refreshed model and legal £100m reference squad quantify the chip decision.
An archived look at Bruno Fernandes’s opening premium case: the £3.5m gap to Haaland, a stronger minutes estimate than cheaper alternatives, and the limits of the evidence.
How to interpret FPLRogue expected points, playing time and displayed ranges, with a clearly dated worked example and links to current model evidence.
Brighton humbled Arsenal, City survived an eight-goal thriller and Coventry mugged the week's fashionable Forest picks. We audit the forecasts and map the best routes into GW6–10.
All 20 GW5 manager briefings, with João Pedro's late test, Newcastle's absences and Porro's return translated into expected-minutes and FPL decisions.
Brighton brought the goals, Pascal Groß topped the points and GW4 again showed why minutes evidence matters more than chasing yesterday's fireworks.
Tyrick Mitchell led GW3's 15-point chaos, Liverpool's attackers supplied the strongest follow-up case and the model's late minutes calls need an honest audit before GW4.
The final manager updates turn confirmed absences into urgent sales and separate secure three-week buys from tempting rotation traps.
Brighton supplied the biggest win and the top two FPL hauls, Hull and Brentford delivered the shocks, and the individual model picks produced lessons in points, minutes and basic employment checks.
Our full Gameweek 1 guide ranks premium, mid-priced and budget players by modelled xPts, xMins and position-specific fixture difficulty, with an evidence-led watchlist for new signings.
Build a legal £100m squad, pick a starting XI and captain before each deadline, then use transfers and chips to respond to fixtures, form and availability.
The first three-Gameweek projections favour a few expensive anchors, a deep £7.0m–£8.0m midfield and budget defenders whose value depends heavily on secure minutes.
The archived opening £4.5m defender shortlist separates Robinson’s points lead from Castagne and Bassey’s stronger minutes estimates, then tests the cost of upgrading.
Manchester City and Manchester United provide the strongest opening attacking routes in the three-Gameweek model, while Arsenal remain the premium defensive benchmark.
The FPLRogue reference squad leaves 11.98 xPts on the GW1 bench. That makes Bench Boost viable—but minutes risk and a slightly stronger GW2 projection keep the call conditional.