Haaland and B.Fernandes led the early forecast but each scored two points. Saka and Calafiori scored nine each within the eight-player shortlist. The original predictions remain unchanged; this historical review separates points misses from minutes uncertainty.
The captaincy verdict
Haaland led this early GW1 forecast on 8.11 expected points, with B.Fernandes almost level on 8.02. That 0.09-point gap was too small to support a confident claim that one was materially better. The shortlist is preserved so the original decision can be judged against both its assumptions and the eventual results.
What the model says
Every candidate in the original table uses the same 15 August cutoff. Prices, clubs, ownership and the first three fixtures are historical context. The GW1 column answers the captaincy question; the three-Gameweek total was a squad-planning measure and should not be substituted for the one-week ranking. Expected minutes describe the forecast available at that time, not confirmed starts.
Archived GW1 captaincy forecast · 15 August 2026
Frozen pre-deadline projections, prices and ownership. These historical values have not been refreshed with today’s player data.
Key takeaway: Haaland led B.Fernandes by only 0.09 projected points in this eight-player shortlist.
| Haaland | 25.18 pts | 8.11 pts | 86.5 mins | Man City · FWD · £15.5m · 73.3% owned · Bournemouth (H), Crystal Palace (A), Coventry City (H) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Fernandes | 22.49 pts | 8.02 pts | 86.2 mins | Man Utd · MID · £12.0m · 48.0% owned · Hull City (A), Ipswich Town (H), Everton (A) |
| Gabriel | 17.77 pts | 6.52 pts | 88.3 mins | Arsenal · DEF · £8.0m · 27.4% owned · Coventry City (H), Aston Villa (A), Chelsea (H) |
| Saka | 17.58 pts | 6.5 pts | 75.5 mins | Arsenal · MID · £9.5m · 10.6% owned · Coventry City (H), Aston Villa (A), Chelsea (H) |
| Mbeumo | 16.56 pts | 5.96 pts | 78.8 mins | Man Utd · MID · £8.0m · 27.5% owned · Hull City (A), Ipswich Town (H), Everton (A) |
| Gyökeres | 15.59 pts | 5.92 pts | 76.5 mins | Arsenal · FWD · £7.5m · 12.9% owned · Coventry City (H), Aston Villa (A), Chelsea (H) |
| Calafiori | 15.44 pts | 5.74 pts | 62.3 mins | Arsenal · DEF · £5.5m · 18.3% owned · Coventry City (H), Aston Villa (A), Chelsea (H) |
| Thiago | 15.92 pts | 5.68 pts | 87.6 mins | Brentford · FWD · £8.0m · 16.3% owned · Spurs (H), Leeds (A), Sunderland (H) |
Best alternatives
Gabriel was third on 6.52 GW1 xPts, narrowly ahead of Saka on 6.50. The remaining candidates offered different combinations of projected output, position and price. Lower ownership could change the effect of a successful captain on rank, but it did not make that player more likely to score points. The eight-player shortlist was a selected group, not the complete FPL player pool.
Risks and late news
This snapshot predated the final team-news window. Its recorded limitation was that recent player-history inputs were empty and the minutes model used position-level assumptions. That weakened the evidence for individual roles. Later fitness, selection or role information is not retrospectively inserted into the table. A forecast this early was a provisional starting point, and its precision should not be confused with certainty.
Final ranking
Original snapshot order: 1. Haaland — 8.11 GW1 xPts, 86.5 xMins; 2. B.Fernandes — 8.02 GW1 xPts, 86.2 xMins; 3. Gabriel — 6.52 GW1 xPts, 88.3 xMins; 4. Saka — 6.50 GW1 xPts, 75.5 xMins; 5. Mbeumo — 5.96 GW1 xPts, 78.8 xMins; 6. Gyökeres — 5.92 GW1 xPts, 76.5 xMins; 7. Calafiori — 5.74 GW1 xPts, 62.3 xMins; 8. Thiago — 5.68 GW1 xPts, 87.6 xMins.
What happened in Gameweek 1
Haaland and B.Fernandes each played 90 minutes and scored two FPL points. Saka and Calafiori were the highest scorers within this shortlist, with nine each. Gabriel scored five; Mbeumo scored two. Gyökeres did not play and recorded zero points, while Thiago played 82 minutes and also finished on zero. These are individual scores before captain multipliers or any squad-specific substitutions.
GW1 outcomes against the original forecast
The same eight shortlisted players, kept in forecast order. Actual points are official individual FPL scores before captain multipliers.
Key takeaway: Saka and Calafiori scored nine points each; the top two forecast picks scored two each. Gyökeres did not play.
| Haaland | 8.11 pts | 2 pts | 86.5 mins | 90 mins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Fernandes | 8.02 pts | 2 pts | 86.2 mins | 90 mins |
| Gabriel | 6.52 pts | 5 pts | 88.3 mins | 90 mins |
| Saka | 6.5 pts | 9 pts | 75.5 mins | 67 mins |
| Mbeumo | 5.96 pts | 2 pts | 78.8 mins | 90 mins |
| Gyökeres | 5.92 pts | 0 pts | 76.5 mins | 0 mins |
| Calafiori | 5.74 pts | 9 pts | 62.3 mins | 80 mins |
| Thiago | 5.68 pts | 0 pts | 87.6 mins | 82 mins |
Across these eight selected players, the mean absolute points error was 4.37 points. This small, deliberately selected cohort is not a measure of whole-model accuracy and is not directly comparable with an all-player benchmark. One Gameweek also cannot distinguish a persistent modelling weakness from normal scoring variation.
The minutes comparison separates two different kinds of miss. Haaland and B.Fernandes received the playing time the forecast broadly expected, but their scoring returns were lower. Gyökeres was projected for 76.5 minutes and played none: his miss began with availability or selection, though this results feed alone does not establish the reason. Calafiori played 80 minutes against a 62.3-minute estimate, giving him more opportunity than the early snapshot allowed.
The useful lesson is to compare close forecasts alongside the quality of their minutes evidence. Keep the original prediction visible, record what changed before the deadline, and evaluate results across a broader sample before claiming improvement. For a current captaincy decision, use the latest Gameweek analysis and team news rather than this archive.
How this article was checked
The original 15 August 2026 snapshot is preserved without changing its player values. Official GW1 results were retrieved on 21 September 2026 after FPL marked the event finished and data checked, and joined by player ID. Mean absolute error is the average absolute difference between original GW1 xPts and actual individual points for these eight shortlisted players only. No captain multiplier is applied; this selected sample is not an all-player model benchmark.
- Fantasy Premier League — Official 15 August player prices, positions, clubs, ownership and availability fields.
- Fantasy Premier League — Official Gameweek 1-3 fixtures and the 21 August deadline.
- FPL Rogue data and models — Refreshed FPLRogue GW1-3 xPts, GW1 xPts and expected-minutes evidence.
- FPL Rogue data and models — Model engine and freshness metadata for the refreshed projection snapshot.
- Fantasy Premier League — Official GW1 individual points and minutes for the eight archived captaincy candidates.
