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FPL Gameweek 1 Player Breakdown: Best Budget, Mid-Priced and Premium Picks

Our full Gameweek 1 guide ranks premium, mid-priced and budget players by modelled xPts, xMins and position-specific fixture difficulty, with an evidence-led watchlist for new signings.

Nine generic football shirts sit on three connected price tiers above fixture and model-data graphics, with an amber emerging-player marker beside the middle tier.
AI-generated illustration: FPLRogue
Answer first

The live model makes Haaland and Bruno Fernandes the strongest premium anchors, with 46.10 and 42.14 xPts over GW1-6. Cherki leads the mid-priced pool on 33.42, while Calvert-Lewin (25.52) and Groß (24.56) head the budget forwards and midfielders. Those are modelled rankings, not automatic picks: xMins and squad opportunity cost matter, and new arrivals such as Luka Vuskovic remain visible in a separate evidence-led lane because their cross-league records are not yet represented in the Premier League projection history.

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The price-band verdict

The model's clearest Gameweek 1 premium anchors are Haaland (46.10 xPts over GW1-6) and Bruno Fernandes (42.14). Gabriel is the leading premium defender at 35.42, while Cherki heads the mid-priced pool and Calvert-Lewin and Groß lead the budget forwards and midfielders. None is an automatic pick: price changes what the rest of a £100m squad can do.

The bands are position-relative: goalkeeper budget £4.5m or less, mid £5.0m and premium £5.5m or more; defender budget £4.5m or less, mid £5.0m-£5.5m and premium £6.0m or more; midfielder budget £5.5m or less, mid £6.0m-£8.5m and premium £9.0m or more; forward budget £6.0m or less, mid £6.5m-£8.5m and premium £9.0m or more.

Price bands at a glance

FPL price bands by position

Budget, mid-priced and premium mean different prices in each position. Read across the row for the player you are assessing.

FPL price bands by position: budget, mid-priced and premium thresholds by position
PositionBudgetMid-pricedPremium
Goalkeeper£4.5m or less£5.0m£5.5m or more
Defender£4.5m or less£5.0m–£5.5m£6.0m or more
Midfielder£5.5m or less£6.0m–£8.5m£9.0m or more
Forward£6.0m or less£6.5m–£8.5m£9.0m or more

How to read it: Compare prices across one position row, not down a column, because every position uses different thresholds.

Definition and prices: FPLRogue editorial definitions using official FPL pricesPrices captured 21 Aug 2026, 17:03 BST

Every main table starts in positional order and shows only the highest-ranked eligible player from each club within that position and price band. This prevents several same-club variants from crowding out useful alternatives. The website can then re-sort within goalkeeper, defender, midfielder and forward groups by price, three- or six-Gameweek xPts, GW1 xMins, start probability, average positional model FDR, xPts per £m or ownership. Lower FDR is easier.

Budget options

Calvert-Lewin (25.52) and Richarlison lead the budget forwards, while Groß (24.56) is the top budget midfielder. Their prices release meaningful money, but the routes are different: Calvert-Lewin has the strongest expected minutes of that group, Richarlison brings a lower ownership route with less security, and Groß pairs near-lock minutes with a tougher average attacking FDR.

Sessegnon is the highest-projected Fulham budget defender, but his opening xMins remain materially lower than F.Kadıoğlu, Justin and Cash—the three club-diverse alternatives shown alongside him. In goal, Verbruggen, Leno, Petrović and Palmer provide four different club routes. Expected minutes and start probability remain the first tie-breakers when the xPts gaps are small.

Data visualisation

Best budget picks by xPts, minutes and fixture difficulty

Budget thresholds vary by position. Each positional group shows at most one player per club. Value is six-Gameweek xPts divided by current official price and does not by itself prove that a player is a safe starter.

Key takeaway: Calvert-Lewin (25.52) and Groß (24.56) lead the budget forward and midfielder pools, but secure minutes remain the first filter.

Best budget picks by xPts, minutes and fixture difficulty: complete data table
Position
GKVerbruggenBHA£4.5m10.43 pts20.86 pts87.3 mins100%3.134.6421.8%GW1 Aston Villa (H) · GW2 Chelsea (A) · GW3 Leeds (H) · GW4 Coventry City (A) · GW5 Arsenal (H) · GW6 Sunderland (A)
GKLenoFUL£4.5m10.81 pts20.16 pts87.3 mins100%3.254.483.1%GW1 Chelsea (H) · GW2 Sunderland (A) · GW3 Crystal Palace (H) · GW4 Liverpool (A) · GW5 Man Utd (H) · GW6 Ipswich Town (A)
GKPetrovićBOU£4.5m8.93 pts18.3 pts87.3 mins100%3.754.073.3%GW1 Man City (A) · GW2 Everton (H) · GW3 Newcastle (A) · GW4 Brentford (H) · GW5 Liverpool (H) · GW6 Chelsea (A)
GKPalmerIPS£4m8.44 pts17.65 pts87.3 mins100%3.984.414.8%GW1 Sunderland (H) · GW2 Man Utd (A) · GW3 Liverpool (H) · GW4 Crystal Palace (A) · GW5 Everton (A) · GW6 Fulham (H)
DEFRobinsonFUL£4.5m13.02 pts24.44 pts68.4 mins91.2%3.255.431.7%GW1 Chelsea (H) · GW2 Sunderland (A) · GW3 Crystal Palace (H) · GW4 Liverpool (A) · GW5 Man Utd (H) · GW6 Ipswich Town (A)
DEFF.KadıoğluBHA£4.5m12.14 pts24.21 pts83.3 mins100%3.135.383%GW1 Aston Villa (H) · GW2 Chelsea (A) · GW3 Leeds (H) · GW4 Coventry City (A) · GW5 Arsenal (H) · GW6 Sunderland (A)
DEFJustinLEE£4.5m11.75 pts23.93 pts81.5 mins100%3.625.320.6%GW1 Nott'm Forest (A) · GW2 Brentford (H) · GW3 Brighton (A) · GW4 Newcastle (H) · GW5 Crystal Palace (H) · GW6 Arsenal (A)
DEFCashAVL£4.5m11.43 pts23.04 pts87.7 mins100%3.425.128.6%GW1 Brighton (A) · GW2 Arsenal (H) · GW3 Hull City (A) · GW4 Nott'm Forest (H) · GW5 Spurs (A) · GW6 Brentford (H)
MIDGroßBHA£5.5m12.42 pts24.56 pts83 mins100%3.94.4614.6%GW1 Aston Villa (H) · GW2 Chelsea (A) · GW3 Leeds (H) · GW4 Coventry City (A) · GW5 Arsenal (H) · GW6 Sunderland (A)
MIDBarkleyAVL£5m11.41 pts22.97 pts61.5 mins82%3.374.590.2%GW1 Brighton (A) · GW2 Arsenal (H) · GW3 Hull City (A) · GW4 Nott'm Forest (H) · GW5 Spurs (A) · GW6 Brentford (H)
MIDHutchinsonNFO£5.5m10.98 pts22.18 pts68.2 mins90.9%3.454.030.2%GW1 Leeds (H) · GW2 Liverpool (A) · GW3 Spurs (H) · GW4 Aston Villa (A) · GW5 Coventry City (H) · GW6 Crystal Palace (A)
MIDGeorgeEVE£5.5m10.54 pts21.98 pts61.6 mins82.1%3.4740.3%GW1 Crystal Palace (H) · GW2 Bournemouth (A) · GW3 Man Utd (H) · GW4 Spurs (A) · GW5 Ipswich Town (H) · GW6 Hull City (A)
FWDCalvert-LewinLEE£6m12.5 pts25.52 pts87.6 mins100%4.034.2531.3%GW1 Nott'm Forest (A) · GW2 Brentford (H) · GW3 Brighton (A) · GW4 Newcastle (H) · GW5 Crystal Palace (H) · GW6 Arsenal (A)
FWDRicharlisonTOT£6m12.65 pts25.38 pts74.5 mins99.3%4.054.233.2%GW1 Brentford (A) · GW2 Newcastle (H) · GW3 Nott'm Forest (A) · GW4 Everton (H) · GW5 Aston Villa (H) · GW6 Man Utd (A)
FWDBetoEVE£5.5m11.85 pts24.75 pts65.7 mins87.6%3.474.52.8%GW1 Crystal Palace (H) · GW2 Bournemouth (A) · GW3 Man Utd (H) · GW4 Spurs (A) · GW5 Ipswich Town (H) · GW6 Hull City (A)
FWDEvanilsonBOU£6m10.94 pts22.35 pts84.1 mins100%3.453.722.2%GW1 Man City (A) · GW2 Everton (H) · GW3 Newcastle (A) · GW4 Brentford (H) · GW5 Liverpool (H) · GW6 Chelsea (A)
Source: FPLRogue live six-Gameweek projection feedCaptured 21 Aug 2026, 16:57 BSTModel xpts_v1 · Dixon-Coles 3.1 · recipe 3651510ccfd5
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Mid-priced options

Cherki leads the tier on 33.42 six-Gameweek xPts, followed by Bruno Guimarães, Gibbs-White and Mbeumo from three different clubs. Cherki's 69.3 GW1 xMins prevent that top rank from being a simple safety call; Gibbs-White offers the clearest near-90-minute route among the leading midfielders.

Calafiori remains the leading mid-priced defender, while Khusanov, Muñoz and Dalot expose alternative clubs instead of repeating four Arsenal variants. The comparison is more useful, but it does not remove role risk: live selection competition still makes expected minutes as important as rank. Thiago and Watkins offer the most secure mid-priced forward minutes; Gyökeres carries more fixture upside but a lower opening minutes expectation.

Data visualisation

Best mid-priced picks by xPts, minutes and fixture difficulty

The mid-priced table shows at most one player per club in each positional group, then compares raw projection, expected minutes, start probability, value and position-specific fixture difficulty.

Key takeaway: Cherki leads the mid-priced tier on 33.42 six-Gameweek xPts, but his 69.3 GW1 xMins make the minutes column essential.

Best mid-priced picks by xPts, minutes and fixture difficulty: complete data table
Position
GKSelsNFO£5m10.26 pts20.78 pts87.3 mins100%3.184.161.6%GW1 Leeds (H) · GW2 Liverpool (A) · GW3 Spurs (H) · GW4 Aston Villa (A) · GW5 Coventry City (H) · GW6 Crystal Palace (A)
GKMartinezAVL£5m10.15 pts20.58 pts87.3 mins100%3.424.124.4%GW1 Brighton (A) · GW2 Arsenal (H) · GW3 Hull City (A) · GW4 Nott'm Forest (H) · GW5 Spurs (A) · GW6 Brentford (H)
GKLammensMUN£5m10.85 pts20.58 pts89 mins100%34.1216.9%GW1 Hull City (A) · GW2 Ipswich Town (H) · GW3 Everton (A) · GW4 Man City (H) · GW5 Fulham (A) · GW6 Spurs (H)
GKPopeNEW£5m9.65 pts20.48 pts63 mins84%3.524.11.3%GW1 Liverpool (H) · GW2 Spurs (A) · GW3 Bournemouth (H) · GW4 Leeds (A) · GW5 Hull City (H) · GW6 Coventry City (A)
DEFCalafioriARS£5.5m15.81 pts31.35 pts64 mins85.3%1.675.738.3%GW1 Coventry City (H) · GW2 Aston Villa (A) · GW3 Chelsea (H) · GW4 Sunderland (A) · GW5 Brighton (A) · GW6 Leeds (H)
DEFKhusanovMCI£5.5m13.81 pts25.81 pts65.6 mins87.5%2.434.691.7%GW1 Bournemouth (H) · GW2 Crystal Palace (A) · GW3 Coventry City (H) · GW4 Man Utd (A) · GW5 Sunderland (H) · GW6 Liverpool (A)
DEFMuñozCRY£5.5m12.05 pts25.61 pts80.5 mins100%3.574.669.8%GW1 Everton (A) · GW2 Man City (H) · GW3 Fulham (A) · GW4 Ipswich Town (H) · GW5 Leeds (A) · GW6 Nott'm Forest (H)
DEFDalotMUN£5m13.42 pts25.43 pts79.2 mins100%35.092.7%GW1 Hull City (A) · GW2 Ipswich Town (H) · GW3 Everton (A) · GW4 Man City (H) · GW5 Fulham (A) · GW6 Spurs (H)
MIDCherkiMCI£7.5m17.65 pts33.42 pts69.3 mins92.4%2.44.467.7%GW1 Bournemouth (H) · GW2 Crystal Palace (A) · GW3 Coventry City (H) · GW4 Man Utd (A) · GW5 Sunderland (H) · GW6 Liverpool (A)
MIDGibbs-WhiteNFO£8m15.13 pts30.67 pts88.2 mins100%3.453.8311.7%GW1 Leeds (H) · GW2 Liverpool (A) · GW3 Spurs (H) · GW4 Aston Villa (A) · GW5 Coventry City (H) · GW6 Crystal Palace (A)
MIDMbeumoMUN£8m16.18 pts30.55 pts75.6 mins100%2.383.8238.4%GW1 Hull City (A) · GW2 Ipswich Town (H) · GW3 Everton (A) · GW4 Man City (H) · GW5 Fulham (A) · GW6 Spurs (H)
MIDEnzoCHE£7m13.85 pts29.75 pts84.4 mins100%3.554.255%GW1 Fulham (A) · GW2 Brighton (H) · GW3 Arsenal (A) · GW4 Hull City (H) · GW5 Brentford (A) · GW6 Bournemouth (H)
FWDJoão PedroCHE£7.5m13.82 pts30.21 pts78.8 mins100%3.554.0364.3%GW1 Fulham (A) · GW2 Brighton (H) · GW3 Arsenal (A) · GW4 Hull City (H) · GW5 Brentford (A) · GW6 Bournemouth (H)
FWDThiagoBRE£8m15.17 pts29.25 pts86.9 mins100%3.573.6617.1%GW1 Spurs (H) · GW2 Leeds (A) · GW3 Sunderland (H) · GW4 Bournemouth (A) · GW5 Chelsea (H) · GW6 Aston Villa (A)
FWDWatkinsAVL£8m14.01 pts28.03 pts85.3 mins100%3.373.510.3%GW1 Brighton (A) · GW2 Arsenal (H) · GW3 Hull City (A) · GW4 Nott'm Forest (H) · GW5 Spurs (A) · GW6 Brentford (H)
FWDGyökeresARS£7.5m14.21 pts27.13 pts66.3 mins88.4%2.733.629.3%GW1 Coventry City (H) · GW2 Aston Villa (A) · GW3 Chelsea (H) · GW4 Sunderland (A) · GW5 Brighton (A) · GW6 Leeds (H)
Source: FPLRogue live six-Gameweek projection feedCaptured 21 Aug 2026, 16:57 BSTModel xpts_v1 · Dixon-Coles 3.1 · recipe 3651510ccfd5

A second evidence lane prevents sparse-data players from disappearing. It is the union of model leaders and sourced editorial watchlist candidates, not a hidden bonus added to xPts. Strong foreign-league production, repeated pre-season selection or a clear role change can earn coverage, while the published projection remains unchanged until the model has calibrated evidence.

Data visualisation

Emerging picks the model may underrate

These players remain visible because sourced role or cross-league evidence conflicts with a low-data minutes assumption. Their projections are not manually inflated.

Key takeaway: Vuskovic is the clearest new-signing blind spot: only 22.1 modelled GW1 minutes, alongside a strong sourced Bundesliga record that still needs a Brighton role confirmation.

Emerging picks the model may underrate: complete data table
Position
DEFVuskovicBHA£5m5.21 pts10.42 pts22.1 mins29.5%3.132.082.6%Evidence-led contender · Brighton profile: 30 Bundesliga appearances, six goals and 69.1% duel success; current feed has no inherited defensive-contribution history.
MIDTzolisARS£6.5m6.63 pts13.01 pts27.5 mins36.7%2.73224.2%Evidence-led contender · started and supplied two Community Shield assists; current model still treats the role as highly uncertain.
MIDMooreTOT£5m4.06 pts8.12 pts19.8 mins26.4%4.051.620.2%Watchlist only · two goals against Hoffenheim after all ten opposing outfielders changed at half-time; opening role remains uncertain.
FWDHavertzARS£7.5m7.86 pts15.11 pts29.2 mins38.9%2.732.025.1%Evidence-led contender · started a third successive match and scored in the Community Shield; model minutes remain materially lower.
Source: FPLRogue live six-Gameweek projection feedCaptured 21 Aug 2026, 16:57 BSTModel xpts_v1 · Dixon-Coles 3.1 · recipe 3651510ccfd5

Premium options

Haaland supplies the highest raw projection: 24.82 xPts over GW1-3 and 46.10 over GW1-6, backed by 86.8 opening-week xMins. Bruno Fernandes is second on 42.14, so the first structural choice is whether to carry both, select one, or accept the ownership and captaincy risk of going without Haaland.

Gabriel's 35.42 xPts, 89.6 xMins and 1.67 average positional FDR create the strongest defensive combination of projection and security. O'Reilly, Tarkowski and Virgil are the club-diverse premium defender alternatives. Saka and Palmer retain upside, but their current minutes assumptions are less secure than the two premium midfield leaders, so the table should be rechecked after team news.

Data visualisation

Best premium picks by xPts, minutes and fixture difficulty

Premium is position-relative, with at most one player per club in each positional group. Average model FDR is the six-Gameweek mean for the player's position; lower is easier.

Key takeaway: Haaland leads all players on 46.10 six-Gameweek xPts, while Gabriel combines 35.42 xPts with 89.6 opening-week xMins.

Best premium picks by xPts, minutes and fixture difficulty: complete data table
Position
GKRayaARS£6m12.8 pts25.52 pts87.3 mins100%1.674.2537.4%GW1 Coventry City (H) · GW2 Aston Villa (A) · GW3 Chelsea (H) · GW4 Sunderland (A) · GW5 Brighton (A) · GW6 Leeds (H)
GKDonnarummaMCI£5.5m12.15 pts22.71 pts87.3 mins100%2.434.138.2%GW1 Bournemouth (H) · GW2 Crystal Palace (A) · GW3 Coventry City (H) · GW4 Man Utd (A) · GW5 Sunderland (H) · GW6 Liverpool (A)
GKPickfordEVE£5.5m9.48 pts20.19 pts87.3 mins100%3.233.677.9%GW1 Crystal Palace (H) · GW2 Bournemouth (A) · GW3 Man Utd (H) · GW4 Spurs (A) · GW5 Ipswich Town (H) · GW6 Hull City (A)
GKA.BeckerLIV£5.5m9.55 pts18.56 pts87.8 mins100%3.733.373.4%GW1 Newcastle (A) · GW2 Nott'm Forest (H) · GW3 Ipswich Town (A) · GW4 Fulham (H) · GW5 Bournemouth (A) · GW6 Man City (H)
DEFGabrielARS£8m17.78 pts35.42 pts89.6 mins100%1.674.4329.7%GW1 Coventry City (H) · GW2 Aston Villa (A) · GW3 Chelsea (H) · GW4 Sunderland (A) · GW5 Brighton (A) · GW6 Leeds (H)
DEFO'ReillyMCI£6.5m17.65 pts33.09 pts85 mins100%2.435.0921%GW1 Bournemouth (H) · GW2 Crystal Palace (A) · GW3 Coventry City (H) · GW4 Man Utd (A) · GW5 Sunderland (H) · GW6 Liverpool (A)
DEFTarkowskiEVE£6m11.8 pts25.11 pts87.3 mins100%3.234.188.7%GW1 Crystal Palace (H) · GW2 Bournemouth (A) · GW3 Man Utd (H) · GW4 Spurs (A) · GW5 Ipswich Town (H) · GW6 Hull City (A)
DEFVirgilLIV£6.5m12.27 pts23.92 pts89.5 mins100%3.733.6818.6%GW1 Newcastle (A) · GW2 Nott'm Forest (H) · GW3 Ipswich Town (A) · GW4 Fulham (H) · GW5 Bournemouth (A) · GW6 Man City (H)
MIDB.FernandesMUN£12m22.35 pts42.14 pts86.7 mins100%2.383.5151.8%GW1 Hull City (A) · GW2 Ipswich Town (H) · GW3 Everton (A) · GW4 Man City (H) · GW5 Fulham (A) · GW6 Spurs (H)
MIDSakaARS£9.5m16.6 pts32.09 pts69.8 mins93.1%2.733.389.2%GW1 Coventry City (H) · GW2 Aston Villa (A) · GW3 Chelsea (H) · GW4 Sunderland (A) · GW5 Brighton (A) · GW6 Leeds (H)
MIDPalmerCHE£9.5m12.74 pts27.33 pts65.6 mins87.5%3.552.8810.3%GW1 Fulham (A) · GW2 Brighton (H) · GW3 Arsenal (A) · GW4 Hull City (H) · GW5 Brentford (A) · GW6 Bournemouth (H)
FWDHaalandMCI£15.5m24.82 pts46.1 pts86.8 mins100%2.42.9769.5%GW1 Bournemouth (H) · GW2 Crystal Palace (A) · GW3 Coventry City (H) · GW4 Man Utd (A) · GW5 Sunderland (H) · GW6 Liverpool (A)
FWDIsakLIV£9m11.76 pts23.01 pts84 mins100%3.322.5616.6%GW1 Newcastle (A) · GW2 Nott'm Forest (H) · GW3 Ipswich Town (A) · GW4 Fulham (H) · GW5 Bournemouth (A) · GW6 Man City (H)
Source: FPLRogue live six-Gameweek projection feedCaptured 21 Aug 2026, 16:57 BSTModel xpts_v1 · Dixon-Coles 3.1 · recipe 3651510ccfd5
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Best squad structures

The optimiser produces three legal £100m examples from available players with at least a 50% modelled start probability. Each pitch places the model-optimal legal GW1 XI from goalkeeper at the top to forwards at the bottom, with the substitute goalkeeper and three ordered outfield substitutes on the bench. The dual-super-premium route carries Haaland and Bruno Fernandes. The Haaland-balanced route drops Bruno and spreads the saving into defence and midfield. The Bruno-balanced route drops Haaland and generates the highest raw 15-player six-Gameweek total, but that total does not include captaincy or autosubs and therefore does not settle the Haaland decision on its own.

Data visualisation

Three legal £100m squad structures and their six-Gameweek model totals

Each pitch shows the legal GW1 XI that maximises modelled xPts, with the substitute goalkeeper and three ordered outfield substitutes below. Full squads use 2/5/5/3, cost no more than £100m and respect the three-per-club limit; six-Gameweek totals exclude captaincy and autosubs.

Key takeaway: The Bruno balanced structure has the highest raw 15-player six-Gameweek total at 444.47 xPts. Each pitch separately identifies its model-optimal legal GW1 XI and four-player bench; captaincy and autosubs are not included.

Three legal £100m squad structures and their six-Gameweek model totals: complete data table
Squad
Dual super-premium£100m436.57 pts60.54 pts3
XI GK: Verbruggen (BHA, 3.5 pts)XI DEF: O'Reilly (MCI, 5.6 pts), Calafiori (ARS, 5.78 pts), White (ARS, 5.48 pts), Mosquera (ARS, 5.24 pts)XI MID: B.Fernandes (MUN, 8.01 pts), Cherki (MCI, 5.72 pts), Enzo (CHE, 4.76 pts), Groß (BHA, 4.22 pts)XI FWD: Haaland (MCI, 7.97 pts), Beto (EVE, 4.26 pts)Bench: GK. Leno (FUL, 3.41 pts), 1. Robinson (FUL, 4.14 pts), 2. Tavernier (BOU, 3.87 pts), 3. Obi (MUN, 3.87 pts)
GW1 model XI: 4-4-2
Haaland balanced£100m438.57 pts59.22 pts3
XI GK: Verbruggen (BHA, 3.5 pts)XI DEF: Gabriel (ARS, 6.56 pts), O'Reilly (MCI, 5.6 pts), Calafiori (ARS, 5.78 pts), White (ARS, 5.48 pts)XI MID: Cherki (MCI, 5.72 pts), Enzo (CHE, 4.76 pts), Dewsbury-Hall (EVE, 4.88 pts)XI FWD: Haaland (MCI, 7.97 pts), João Pedro (CHE, 4.71 pts), Beto (EVE, 4.26 pts)Bench: GK. Leno (FUL, 3.41 pts), 1. Groß (BHA, 4.22 pts), 2. Robinson (FUL, 4.14 pts), 3. Tavernier (BOU, 3.87 pts)
GW1 model XI: 4-3-3
Bruno balanced£100m444.47 pts60.39 pts4
XI GK: Verbruggen (BHA, 3.5 pts)XI DEF: Gabriel (ARS, 6.56 pts), O'Reilly (MCI, 5.6 pts), Calafiori (ARS, 5.78 pts), Guéhi (MCI, 5.11 pts), White (ARS, 5.48 pts)XI MID: B.Fernandes (MUN, 8.01 pts), Cherki (MCI, 5.72 pts), Gibbs-White (NFO, 5.16 pts), Enzo (CHE, 4.76 pts)XI FWD: João Pedro (CHE, 4.71 pts)Bench: GK. Leno (FUL, 3.41 pts), 1. Beto (EVE, 4.26 pts), 2. Calvert-Lewin (LEE, 4.03 pts), 3. Tavernier (BOU, 3.87 pts)
GW1 model XI: 5-4-1
Source: FPLRogue live six-Gameweek projection feed and official FPL pricesCaptured 21 Aug 2026, 16:57 BSTModel xpts_v1 · Dixon-Coles 3.1 · recipe 3651510ccfd5

Choose structure before chasing the final decimal. If Haaland is the intended captain in several early weeks, his multiplier can outweigh a lower uncaptained 15-player total. If captaincy can be covered by Bruno or another premium, the balanced structure buys more projected points across the rest of the squad. In every route, retain at least one reliable bench player and avoid using a low-xMins emerging pick as a forced starter.

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Evidence and methodology

How this article was checked

Official FPL prices, positions, ownership and availability were joined to the live FPLRogue six-Gameweek player feed captured at the timestamp shown in every table and the frozen snapshot. Main shortlists contain up to four available players by GW1-6 xPts at each position within fixed position-relative price bands, subject to at least a 50% modelled GW1 start probability and a maximum of one player per club in each position-band group. This club-diversity rule prevents near-identical same-club options from crowding out useful alternatives; it does not change any player's model projection. GW1-3 and GW1-6 xPts are summed from fixture rows; average FDR is the mean of the model's six position-specific difficulty values, where lower is easier; xPts/£m is GW1-6 xPts divided by current price. Emerging candidates are a separate sourced coverage lane and receive no manual xPts uplift. Squad structures maximise raw 15-player GW1-6 xPts under the £100m budget, 2/5/5/3 position rules, three-per-club limit and the same availability/minutes floor. Each card then selects the legal 11-player GW1 lineup with the highest modelled GW1 xPts and orders the remaining outfield substitutes by GW1 xPts; the substitute goalkeeper is bench slot zero. Squad totals exclude captaincy and autosub effects.

  1. FPL Rogue data and models — GW1-3 and GW1-6 xPts, GW1 xMins/start probability, floors, ceilings and positional fixture difficulty.
  2. FPL Rogue data and models — Projection timestamp, live xPts engine and Dixon-Coles version and recipe.
  3. Fantasy Premier League — Current official player prices, positions, clubs, ownership and availability flags.
  4. Official club websites — Brighton's confirmed signing of Luka Vuskovic and the coach's adaptation caveat.
  5. Official club websites — Vuskovic's 30 Bundesliga appearances, six goals, duel-success record and competition-for-minutes context.
  6. Official club websites — Arsenal's Community Shield XI, Havertz start and goal, Tzolis assists and substitutions.
  7. Official club websites — Moore's two goals, Spurs' starting roles and Hoffenheim's half-time outfield changes.
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