Robinson led the archived £4.5m forecast, but Castagne gave up only 0.17 projected points with 10.7 more expected minutes per match. Bassey offered the highest minutes estimate among the listed budget options. Bench strength determined how much selection risk was reasonable.
The price-band verdict
Robinson’s 12.98 expected points across GW1–3 put him first in this £4.5m shortlist. Castagne followed at 12.81 and Bassey at 12.35. The points order concealed different minutes assumptions: 68.8, 79.5 and 89.6 per match respectively.
For a defence already carrying uncertain starters, Castagne was the more balanced profile: the forecast sacrificed 0.17 points while allowing 10.7 more minutes per match. Bassey gave up 0.63 points relative to Robinson but had a much stronger minutes estimate. Neither comparison guaranteed a start; it described how the model priced the risk.
Premium options
The original analysis used Gabriel at £8.0m, 17.99 xPts and 89.6 expected minutes as the premium benchmark. Moving from Robinson to Gabriel cost £3.5m for 5.01 additional projected points. That was a larger points improvement than the small differences within the £4.5m band, but also a substantial budget commitment.
A premium anchor made sense when the remaining defenders were credible starters and the £3.5m did not weaken captaincy or attack. An all-budget defence released more money, but its success depended on the outfield upgrade that saving purchased. Cheap defenders alone were not a complete strategy.
£4.5m defenders by three-Gameweek xPts
Expected minutes shown in notes.
Key takeaway: Expected minutes shown in notes.
View chart as a data table
| Robinson | 12.98 pts | 68.8 xMins |
|---|---|---|
| Sessegnon | 12.89 pts | 57.9 xMins |
| Castagne | 12.81 pts | 79.5 xMins |
| Bassey | 12.35 pts | 89.6 xMins |
| Kadıoglu | 12.09 pts | 83.5 xMins |
| Shaw | 11.98 pts | 83.8 xMins |
| Kayode | 11.96 pts | 88.0 xMins |
Mid-priced options
Dalot’s archived £5.0m projection was 13.45 points with 79.2 expected minutes. Against Castagne, the extra £0.5m bought 0.64 projected points with almost identical minutes. That comparison gave a clearer measure of the upgrade than comparing club reputations.
Van den Berg was also £5.0m, at 12.92 xPts and 84.1 minutes. His forecast sat just below Robinson’s and above Castagne’s, with a different balance of minutes and cost. None of these margins justified a transfer hit solely to improve the three-match central estimate.
Budget options
Sessegnon’s 12.89 xPts placed him second by points, but his 57.9 expected minutes were the lowest in the table. A manager choosing him was accepting a different risk from Bassey despite paying the same price. Pairing that choice with other uncertain starters would make the bench particularly important.
Kadıoglu offered 12.09 xPts and 83.5 expected minutes, Shaw 11.98 and 83.8, and Kayode 11.96 and 88.0. Their points estimates were tightly grouped. Kayode’s stronger minutes figure could appeal to a squad needing cover; it did not establish that he would outscore the other two.
The original shortlist concentrated several options at Fulham. Taking multiple defenders from the same club tied more of the defence to the same clean-sheet result. Spreading the picks across clubs reduced that dependence, although it could also sacrifice projected points.
Best squad structures
A safer allocation paired a high-minutes starter such as Bassey with at most one more volatile budget option. A squad with a dependable first substitute could tolerate Robinson or Sessegnon more comfortably. If the bench was already weak, stacking low-minutes defenders risked turning one missed start into a formation problem.
The useful choice was between paying £0.5m for a modest step into the £5.0m group and committing £3.5m to Gabriel’s larger forecast advantage. Those savings needed a specific destination elsewhere. These are defensive allocation examples based on the archived shortlist, not independently optimised full squads.
How this article was checked
The £4.5m chart preserves GW1–3 xPts and expected minutes from 6 August 2026. Differences use the displayed rounded values. Premium and £5.0m comparisons are retained from the original published analysis. The original snapshot records only the position, price filter and horizon; the archived chart supplies the listed budget-player values. These forecasts are not current team news.
- FPL Rogue data and models — Frozen three-Gameweek xPts, xMins, start probability, price and ownership.
- FPL Rogue data and models — Accepted engine, recipe and methodology status.
- Fantasy Premier League — Official player, team, price, position, status and GW1 deadline data.
