In the opening forecast, Raya led on points but Leno offered the cheaper starting route. The £1.5m premium bought 2.01 projected points across three matches. Spending more was worthwhile only if the same money offered less value elsewhere in the squad.
The price-band verdict
The opening forecast made Leno the budget reference at £4.5m and 10.81 expected points across GW1–3. Raya led the listed goalkeepers at £6.0m and 12.82 xPts. The difference was 2.01 projected points for £1.5m, rather than a large gap between a viable starter and an unusable one.
That comparison favoured saving when an outfield position needed the money. A manager with a settled attack and no useful £1.5m upgrade had a stronger case for Raya. The forecast alone could not decide the whole squad: the relevant cost was the improvement sacrificed in another position.
Premium options
Donnarumma sat between the two at £5.5m and 12.15 xPts. Relative to Leno, an extra £1.0m bought 1.34 projected points; the further £0.5m from Donnarumma to Raya bought 0.67. Both steps therefore offered similar marginal value in this particular three-match forecast.
Raya and Donnarumma were each listed at 87.3 expected minutes per match. Their projection gap consequently did not come from a large difference in expected playing time. Those minutes were model assumptions, not confirmation of selection. Each also used a club slot that could otherwise support an outfield pick.
Opening goalkeeper projection
Three-Gameweek xPts with official prices.
Key takeaway: Three-Gameweek xPts with official prices.
View chart as a data table
| Raya | 12.82 pts | £6.0m |
|---|---|---|
| Donnarumma | 12.15 pts | £5.5m |
| Lammens | 10.83 pts | £5.0m |
| Leno | 10.81 pts | £4.5m |
| Roefs | 10.78 pts | £5.0m |
| Kelleher | 10.65 pts | £5.0m |
| Verbruggen | 10.39 pts | £4.5m |
Mid-priced options
Lammens led the displayed £5.0m choices at 10.83 xPts, followed by Roefs at 10.78 and Kelleher at 10.65. All three were within 0.18 points of one another. That was too small a spread to justify treating the order as a decisive advantage.
Lammens was only 0.02 points ahead of the cheaper Leno. On the evidence shown here, his additional £0.5m did not buy a meaningful three-match projection gain. Choosing that route needed a separate reason, such as a preferred longer holding period; this chart did not establish one.
Budget options
Verbruggen offered the other £4.5m route in the chart at 10.39 xPts, 0.42 behind Leno. The small difference made the second goalkeeper and the intended holding period relevant, but the aggregate totals did not prove which pair rotated best.
A second playing goalkeeper provides cover and a weekly choice. It does not add both players’ points to the ordinary starting XI. Adding two three-match totals would therefore overstate the benefit of a rotating pair. A reliable rotation comparison needs each keeper’s fixture-by-fixture projection and selection prospects. Those rows were not retained in this article.
Best squad structures
At the archived prices, Leno plus a £4.0m reserve cost £8.5m. Two £4.5m goalkeepers cost £9.0m; Donnarumma plus a £4.0m reserve cost £9.5m; Raya plus a £4.0m reserve cost £10.0m. These are goalkeeper budget allocations, not complete verified 15-player squads. A £4.0m price also did not guarantee a playing substitute.
The budget route suited a squad that needed another £1.5m outfield. The premium route suited a manager satisfied with the rest of the XI and willing to pay for the higher central forecast. Rotation was a third decision requiring evidence of alternating opportunities, rather than an automatic upgrade over either single-starter approach.
How this article was checked
Historical GW1–3 projections and prices are retained from the chart captured on 6 August 2026. Price and points differences are calculated from its displayed values. The original snapshot records the horizon and position filter only; the chart is the surviving player-level record. It does not contain fixture-level rotation projections or establish current starting roles.
- FPL Rogue data and models — Frozen three-Gameweek xPts, xMins, start probability, price and ownership.
- FPL Rogue data and models — Accepted engine, recipe and methodology status.
- Fantasy Premier League — Official player, team, price, position, status and GW1 deadline data.
- Fantasy Premier League — Official 2026/27 fixture list.
