Live model accountability

FPL projection accuracy by Gameweek

Each scorecard compares a frozen pre-deadline release with settled official FPL points and minutes. No projection is reconstructed after the result.

Long-run model tests Source snapshots

Settled results only

Published scorecards

1 Gameweek

Gameweek	Likely-player MAE	RMSE	Bias	Within 2 pts	xMins MAE	Engine
GW3	2.51	3.04	+0.96	42.5%	24.1 min	xpts_v1

Primary reporting cohort

The headline row covers players projected for at least 45 minutes. We also publish all-player and predicted-top-25 results on every detail page so a favourable cohort cannot hide broader performance.