FPL GW7 projection accuracy scorecard
The accepted xpts_v1 release was frozen before the deadline, then compared with official points, minutes and starts after the Gameweek finished.
Snapshot2026-10-16-gw7
Likely players259
Likely-player MAE2.60 pts
xMins MAE23.6 min
No post-result reconstruction
Accuracy by cohort
| Cohort | Players | MAE | RMSE | Bias | Within 2 pts | xMins MAE | Start Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All captured players | 667 | 1.34 | 2.15 | +0.43 | 71.2% | 14.4 min | 0.115 |
| Projected ≥45 minutes | 259 | 2.60 | 3.12 | +0.89 | 39.0% | 23.6 min | 0.199 |
| Predicted top 25 | 25 | 3.50 | 3.92 | +1.59 | 20.0% | 14.3 min | 0.155 |
Highest pre-deadline xPts
Predicted top 10 outcomes
| Player | Team | Predicted | Actual | Error | xMins | Minutes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 Haaland | MCI | 10.18 | 13 | -2.82 | 86.0 | 90 |
| #2 Cherki | MCI | 6.71 | 0 | +6.71 | 65.8 | 0 |
| #3 Saka | ARS | 6.29 | 3 | +3.29 | 87.0 | 90 |
| #4 B.Fernandes | MUN | 6.15 | 1 | +5.15 | 87.0 | 90 |
| #5 Guéhi | MCI | 6.15 | 1 | +5.15 | 87.9 | 90 |
| #6 Groß | BHA | 5.92 | 5 | +0.92 | 87.0 | 70 |
| #7 Semenyo | MCI | 5.81 | 1 | +4.81 | 87.0 | 13 |
| #8 De Cuyper | BHA | 5.73 | 6 | -0.27 | 87.0 | 90 |
| #9 Vuskovic | BHA | 5.49 | 11 | -5.51 | 87.0 | 90 |
| #10 Calafiori | ARS | 5.47 | 6 | -0.53 | 87.0 | 90 |
How this scorecard is calculated
Point error is predicted next-Gameweek xPts minus settled official points. MAE averages absolute error; RMSE gives larger misses more weight; positive bias means overprediction. Minutes MAE compares xMins with played minutes. Start Brier score measures the probability forecast against the official start flag, where lower is better.