FPL GW3 projection accuracy scorecard
The accepted xpts_v1 release was frozen before the deadline, then compared with official points, minutes and starts after the Gameweek finished.
Snapshot2026-09-04-gw3
Likely players292
Likely-player MAE2.51 pts
xMins MAE24.1 min
No post-result reconstruction
Accuracy by cohort
| Cohort | Players | MAE | RMSE | Bias | Within 2 pts | xMins MAE | Start Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All captured players | 652 | 1.49 | 2.21 | +0.66 | 69.6% | 16.5 min | 0.106 |
| Projected ≥45 minutes | 292 | 2.51 | 3.04 | +0.96 | 42.5% | 24.1 min | 0.185 |
| Predicted top 25 | 25 | 3.17 | 3.63 | +2.37 | 24.0% | 18.2 min | 0.136 |
Highest pre-deadline xPts
Predicted top 10 outcomes
| Player | Team | Predicted | Actual | Error | xMins | Minutes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 Haaland | MCI | 10.10 | 9 | +1.10 | 87.6 | 90 |
| #2 B.Fernandes | MUN | 7.57 | 2 | +5.57 | 88.0 | 90 |
| #3 Cherki | MCI | 7.11 | 3 | +4.11 | 78.0 | 65 |
| #4 Guéhi | MCI | 6.99 | 8 | -1.01 | 89.6 | 90 |
| #5 O'Reilly | MCI | 6.72 | 0 | +6.72 | 81.3 | 0 |
| #6 Enzo | MCI | 6.55 | 3 | +3.55 | 85.0 | 75 |
| #7 Semenyo | MCI | 6.24 | 6 | +0.24 | 83.6 | 90 |
| #8 Foden | MCI | 6.15 | 1 | +5.15 | 79.6 | 24 |
| #9 Saka | ARS | 6.07 | 2 | +4.07 | 69.2 | 89 |
| #10 Gvardiol | MCI | 5.88 | 8 | -2.12 | 70.8 | 90 |
How this scorecard is calculated
Point error is predicted next-Gameweek xPts minus settled official points. MAE averages absolute error; RMSE gives larger misses more weight; positive bias means overprediction. Minutes MAE compares xMins with played minutes. Start Brier score measures the probability forecast against the official start flag, where lower is better.