FPLRogue
FPL Monte Carlo simulator

An FPL Monte Carlo simulator for upside, floor and mini-league probability.

FPLRogue uses simulation-led Fantasy Premier League modelling to show projected ranges, risk, upside and decision probability before transfers and captaincy calls.

See the app preview

Founder waitlist members can lock Pro at £9.99/year if they subscribe before 30 September 2026 and keep the subscription active.

Why it matters

Built for managers who want an edge before deadline.

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Understand whether a move is genuinely high-upside or simply high-risk.

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Compare captaincy and transfer decisions by projected outcome distribution.

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Use mini-league probability to decide when to play safe or chase upside.

How FPLRogue works

World-class data modelling, translated into weekly FPL decisions.

FPLRogue combines expected points, expected minutes, fixture strength, player value and simulation-driven risk. The goal is not to drown you in dashboards; it is to show the decision most likely to improve your Fantasy Premier League season.

01

Start with player projections

Expected minutes, fixture strength and player role feed the baseline for each simulation.

02

Run outcome distributions

Simulations generate a range of possible scores rather than one fragile prediction.

03

Convert uncertainty into decisions

The output is designed to show practical FPL choices: safest pick, best EV, upside punt and risk warning.

Search topics covered

Related Fantasy Premier League tools and terms.

FPL Monte Carlo simulatorFantasy Premier League simulatorFPL points simulatorFPL probability modelFPL expected points simulationFPL mini league simulator
Explore more tools

More FPLRogue pages for data-driven managers.

FPL transfer plannerRank transfers by expected value.FPL projected pointsExpected points, explained clearly.FPL captain pickerChoose captaincy by EV, not fear.FPL fixture tickerFixture difficulty with context.FPL wildcard plannerBuild a wildcard that survives more than one gameweek.Fantasy Premier League appThe decision layer your FPL season is missing.FPL AI team pickerAI recommendations with football logic attached.
FAQ

Common questions about fpl monte carlo simulator.

What is a Monte Carlo simulator for FPL?

A Monte Carlo simulator estimates many possible Fantasy Premier League outcomes instead of relying on one expected score. This helps show risk, upside and probability ranges.

Why is simulation useful for FPL decisions?

Two players can have similar average projections but very different risk profiles. Simulation helps compare floor, ceiling and the probability of a decision paying off.

Does simulation remove luck from FPL?

No. Football remains volatile. The purpose is to make better decisions under uncertainty, not to guarantee outcomes.

Join the FPLRogue waitlist before launch.

Get the launch email, founder member status and access to the £9.99/year Pro founder price if redeemed before 30 September 2026.